Uncorrelated is uncorrelated: data continues to suggest bitcoin clearly not a haven asset
February 26, 2020, 11:23AM EST · 5 min read
Quick Take
- Amidst a coronavirus-driven sell-off, Bitcoin is clearly not serving as a safe haven
- The bond market and the possibility of global growth contracting significantly in the 2Q has many expecting the Fed to step in and cut rates — causing some to suggest this is favorable for bitcoin
- In 2019, The Block found no discernible positive impact on the returns of bitcoin when rates were cut, over a 1-week, 1-month, 3-month return lag
- Since 2013, we found over 57 observations where at least 2/3 of a haven asset basket (gold, yen, U.S. Treasuries) saw a daily outsized return
- Among those days, bitcoin also saw an outsized daily move on ~20% of those observations
- If anything, bitcoin is acting less as a haven asset, as 80% of shared outsized moves with other havens have come before 2018
Amidst a coronavirus-driven sell-off, Bitcoin is clearly not serving as a safe haven.
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